2018 Fantasy Baseball Undervalued Draft Selections

With the MLB season set to start next Thursday, this weekend will be the most popular time to hold your fantasy baseball draft. In fantasy baseball especially, given the roster size compared to other sports, it’s important to hit on your late-round draft selections. Making key picks in the mid-late rounds could set your team up to be a juggernaut that becomes a lock for the playoffs—and once you’re in, you have a chance. These players are my picks to become fantasy baseball steals in 2018. For my full rankings, you can check them out here. [Note: Average Draft Positions are taken from FantasyPros averages.]

 

Byron Buxton – OF – Twins (ADP: 58)

Targeting Byron Buxton earlier than his sixth-round ADP in fantasy drafts means banking on him having a breakout at the plate this season. With 278 games of major league experience under his belt, it might be time for the breakout to happen. An average of .280 or .290 with 20 home runs and 40 steals would be insane production for the Gold Glove outfielder.

 

Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox (ADP: 71)

Just last season, Xander Bogaerts was a round-three pick in almost all fantasy drafts. Now, he’s going around four rounds later and could end up being a difference-maker at the shortstop position. Perhaps Bogaerts’ 21 home runs in 2016 were an anomaly, as he hasn’t had more than 12 in any of his other four full big-league seasons; but with J.D. Martinez added to the mix, it could allow Bogaerts to see more pitches to hit like he did in 2016 when David Ortiz was still playing for Boston.

 

Jake Arrieta – SP – Phillies (ADP: 88)

After his Cy Young Award winning 2015 season in which he posted a 1.77 ERA and won 22 games, Jake Arrieta’s wins have gone down by four in each of the last two seasons, and his ERA has risen to 3.10 in 2016 and 3.53 in 2017. Sometimes, velocity can vary from season to season like Arrieta’s did compared to his Cy Young year, but he looked great in his spring debut yesterday, touching 94 and 95 on the radar gun. Arrieta takes care of his body, and the change of scenery could help push him back into an elite fantasy starter.

 

Adrian Beltre – 3B – Rangers (ADP: 136)

At 38 (soon to be 39), it’s fair to be concerned about Adrian Beltre’s health. But his ADP of the 14^th round is an absolute steal and worth the selection, no matter how many games he plays. Beltre just hit .312 with 17 bombs in 94 games last season, and among all the targets in the double-digit rounds, Beltre offers the safest bet for great production when he’s on the field. Of everyone on the list, Beltre might be the person I most highly recommend targeting.

 

Greg Bird – 1B – Yankees (ADP: 156)

Entering last season, there was a ton of hype surrounding Greg Bird, but he hit only .190 in his 48 games played. However, nine of his 28 hits were home runs—yes, it’s a small sample size, but Bird offers 35-homer upside and is currently going toward the end of fantasy drafts. The acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton has taken away the talk about a Bird breakout, and Stanton should also take some pressure off Bird to perform.

 

Kyle Schwarber – OF – Cubs (ADP: 161)

I am telling you: get Kyle Schwarber in your fantasy draft if you can. Schwarber hit 30 bombs last season despite hitting only .211, so if he increases his average, 35-40 home runs is certainly in reach. Schwarber also struck out 150 times last season, though, which is a concern, but it’s hard to deny how good he’s looked this spring, both in the box score and in general. He’s lost a lot of weight and looks like a totally different person, and he’s hitting .381. A top-five or top-ten NL MVP finish wouldn’t surprise me.

 

Garrett Richards – SP – Angels (ADP: 166)

Of course, injuries are the big concern with Garrett Richards, as he’s pitched in just six games in each of the last two seasons. But with an ADP of around 166? He’s being slept on as a potential top 10-20 fantasy starter. The Angels should be a very good team this season, which should help Richards rack up wins, and there’s also the fact that Richards is simply a good pitcher that showed a lot of promise before his injuries.

 

Ian Kinsler – 2B – Angels (ADP: 169)

Like many of the players on this list, Kinsler was a very high fantasy selection in years past, but now he can be had at a premium discount. Last season, Kinsler was going in the fifth and sixth rounds of most fantasy drafts, but this year he can be had over 100 picks later. Considering he’s on a better team that includes Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Justin Upton, among others, Kinsler—who has popped 50 homers over the last two seasons—could be a top-five fantasy second baseman.

 

Cole Hamels – SP – Rangers (ADP: 197)

Veteran players with a history of big-time production are a trend on this list, as it’s ideal to target players that have shown the ability to produce at a high level. Before he had a 4.20 ERA last season, Cole Hamels had an average ERA of 3.20 in the previous eight seasons—clearly, even at 34, Hamels is closer to a 3.20 ERA pitcher than he is a 4.20 ERA pitcher. Hamels also has 200-strikeout potential after he just hit the mark in 2016. A big bounce back could be in order.

 

Odeubel Herrera – OF – Phillies (ADP: 206)

How is a guy that has hit .288 over the last three seasons and contributes in all areas not a higher fantasy selection? Odubel Herrera just smacked 42 doubles in 2017, which was just one behind Nolan Arenado and Daniel Murphy for first in the National League last season. Herrera definitely needs to walk more to up his on-base percentage, but he’s still only 26 and has room to grow there. On a Phillies team that should be improved, 100 runs scored and 60+ RBIs might be a lock for Herrera.

 

Jason Heyward – OF – Cubs (ADP: 319)

Only four stolen bases last season was a surprise, but Jason Heyward improved his average by .29 points and despite struggles this spring he has shown the ability to be a .270-.290 hitter. Also, he hasn’t topped 14 home runs since his 27-home 2012 season (when he struck out a career-high 152 times), but Heyward is 28 and could be entering his prime. I’m not saying to reach for him in the tenth round, but at an ADP below 300, Heyward is well worth a later selection as someone that could surprise the doubters and put everything together into a superb offensive season.

 

Hanley Ramirez – 1B/DH – Red Sox (ADP: 323)

The most mind-blowing steal on this list is Hanley Ramirez, who isn’t even getting drafted in a lot of leagues. Ramirez subscribed to Tom Brady’s TB12 method, which should help him remain healthy and play 145+ games, as well as help him perform when he is on the field. Ramirez was just a top-100 selection in all fantasy drafts last season, and he’s going to be the three-hole hitter for a Red Sox team that added J.D. Martinez and should have one of the best lineups in baseball. If he stays healthy, I would be surprised if Ramirez didn’t get at least 90-100 RBIs in 2018.