At the MLB All-Star break, every division is thankfully close, with all divisions except one being within five games. Squads have the power to make big turnarounds (or fall apart), but this is how I rank each team’s security in the top spot in the division with a month-and-a-half left in the regular season.
1. Cleveland Indians (AL Central)
The one team that’s up more than five games in the division is the Indians, who have a 7.5-game lead over the second-place Twins in the AL Central. The Indians haven’t been quite as good as the last couple of seasons so far, but we’ve seen them be able to get as hot as any team in the history of baseball. Led by a balanced roster with a great manager in Terry Francona, Cleveland is the best bet to stay in first place and win their division despite having just the 11th-best record in the majors at the break.
2. Houston Astros (AL West)
The defending champs are 64-35 and should win the AL West for a second straight year, but the Mariners have been right behind that elite group in the American League and should not be fully counted out. But with the best pitching staff in the majors and an offense that’s scoring 5.1 runs per game, it’ll take all Seattle has to topple Houston.
3. Boston Red Sox (AL East)
The Yankees have the second-best record in baseball, but the 68-30 Red Sox are still 4.5 games up in the division and are red-hot heading into the All-Star break. Boston’s offense is stacked with talent, and they are in the driver’s seat for the major’s highest-scoring offense when the season is over. The team is on pace for over 110 wins this season, which is astonishing.
4. Chicago Cubs (NL Central)
The American League is extremely top heavy, but the Cubs have been an elite team the last few seasons and have a World Series title to show for it. Chicago has the best record in the NL, thanks in part to the Brewers getting cold late. They’re currently 2.5 games ahead of Milwaukee, but they’re five games ahead in the loss column with five less games played.
5. Philadelphia Phillies (NL East)
If the Phillies are able to acquire Manny Machado—and potentially Zach Britton—from the Orioles, they would arguably be as high as the third-best odds to keep their division lead into October. The Braves (0.5 games back) limped into the All-Star break, and the Nationals (5.5 games back) have not yet showed signs of a potential turnaround. With three pitchers under 3.25 ERA (Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin) headlining the rotation, the Phillies are going to be in a lot of games down the stretch.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West)
Overall, the Dodgers might be the best team in the National League after a slow start to the season. Clayton Kershaw is looking more and more like his usual self as he gets deeper into ballgames, and this team was just in the World Series last year. However, they are ranked as the least likely team to keep the division lead because there are three other teams within four games of first place. There are simply more chances a team in the division gets hot and overtakes them for first.
I think they’ll all win the divisions. Maybe Yankees if they get hot.